PENGARUH FLUKTUASI NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP NERACA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN

Abstract

The Rupiah exchange rate is an economic variable which is very sensitive toward the changes in both economy and non-economy. The stability of Rupiah exchange rate has influenced on macro economic variables ( the balance of trade) and economic stabilities. So it is interesting to make a study/research on it. The research will choose and analyze approach models of Rupiah exchange rate to USA dollars. The result of the study is the bet model in determining Rupiah exchange rate. As the evaluation tool of the selected model, it will be held a forecast about Rupiah exchange rate with the selected model. Besides determining the model of Rupiah exchange rate, the other result of the study is the economy policy to manage/stabilize Rupiah exchange rate that can keep the macro economy stability. To get a valid conclusion, this study uses some analyses.

Keywords: the balance of payment , the exchange rate , the macro economic stability